Revenue-Durchrechnung

MOC - Map of Content

Status Update Februar 2026: Queue-Boost Revenue-Splits wurden auf das neue gestaffelte Plattform-Fee-Modell umgestellt. Statt fixer 30% Platform-Share gilt jetzt eine degressive Fee (15%/10%/7%/5%) pro Creator pro Monat. Siehe Revenue-Splits für Details.

Überblick: Finanzielle Szenarien mit Tabellen

Dies ist die detaillierte Finanzmodellierung für Breakout. Wir berechnen drei Szenarien (Pessimistic, Realistic, Optimistic) basierend auf verschiedenen Annahmen über Nutzerverhalten, Conversion Rates und Wachstum.

Kritisch: Diese Zahlen sind Schätzungen. Echte Daten werden in Month 1-2 gesammelt, und Szenarien werden entsprechend angepasst.

Annahmen & Variable

Input Variables (Pro Monat)

Tournament Variables (Per Tournament, 1x per Month)

Creator Premium & Subscriptions

Scenario 1: Pessimistic (Conservative)

Monthly Revenue Calculation

Queue-Boosts (Pre-Tournament)

Calculation:
Sessions per month:   20 sessions/week × 4 weeks = 80 sessions
Artists per session:  30 artists/session
Total artist submissions: 80 × 30 = 2,400 artist submissions
Boost conversion:     2,400 × 5% = 120 boosts/month
Avg boost price:      5€
Gross revenue:        120 × 5€ = 600€

Stripe-Gebühren (Creator zahlt): ~13€ (2.9% + €0.30/Txn)
Netto nach Stripe:    587€

Plattform-Fee (gestaffelt):
├─ Ø ~40€/Creator/Monat → alle im 15%-Tier
├─ 15 Creator × ~40€ × 15% = ~88€
└─ Effektive Fee: ~15% (alle Creator unter €500)

Creator erhalten:     499€ (~83,2%)
Breakout erhält:      88€
Stripe erhält:        13€

Creator Premium

Premium creators:     2 creators
Monthly fee:          9,99€
Gross revenue:        2 × 9,99€ = 20€
Stripe fee (10%):     -2€
Net revenue:          18€
Platform gets:        18€ (100%)

A&R Subscriptions

A&R subscribers:      0
Monthly revenue:      0€

Total Monthly (Pre-Tournament): 106€

Tournament Month Revenue

Tournament Entry Fees

Entry price:          19,99€
Total entries:        300
Gross revenue:        300 × 19,99€ = 5,997€
Stripe fee (2.2%):    -132€
Net revenue:          5,865€

Distribution:
├─ Prize Pool (45%):        2,639€
├─ Platform (30%):          1,760€
├─ Jury (15%):              880€
├─ Charity (5%):            293€
└─ Marketing (5%):          293€

Platform gets from Tournament Entries: 1,760€

Viewer Donations

Viewers:              500
Donation conversion:  1% = 5 donors
Avg donation:         8€
Gross revenue:        5 × 8€ = 40€
Stripe fee (2.2%):    -1€
Net revenue:          39€

Distribution (60/20/20):
├─ Artists (60%):     23€
├─ Judges (20%):      8€
└─ Platform (20%):    8€

Platform gets from Donations: 8€

Jury Compensation (Cost)

Head Judge:           75€
Judges 2-4:           50€ × 3 = 150€
Revenue Share (bonus): 25€ (if 300 entries)
Total Jury Cost:      250€

Platform pays out: 250€ (this is expense, not revenue)

Total Tournament Month: 1,760€ + 8€ - 250€ = 1,518€

Pessimistic Scenario: Full Month Projection

Regular Month Revenue (Weeks 1-3):
├─ Queue-Boosts (Platform-Fee): 88€
└─ Creator Premium: 18€
└─ Subtotal: ~106€/month ÷ 4 × 3 weeks = ~80€

Tournament Month (Week 4):
├─ Tournament Entries: 1,760€
├─ Donations: 8€
├─ Jury Cost: -250€
└─ Subtotal: 1,518€

Total Monthly Revenue: 80€ + 1,518€ = 1,598€
Total Monthly Costs: 250€ (jury only)
Net Platform Revenue: 1,348€

Pessimistic Scenario: Annual Projection

Regular Months (11 months):
  80€ × 11 = 880€

Tournament Month (1 month):
  1,518€ × 1 = 1,518€

Annual Revenue: 2,398€
Annual Jury Costs: 250€ × 12 = 3,000€
Annual Net: -602€ ← NOT SUSTAINABLE

Assessment: Pessimistic scenario is NEGATIVE for business sustainability. Even with the new tiered fee model giving creators better terms, the platform still cannot sustain operations at 15 creators. Platform only breaks even above 25-30 active creators. Must move to Realistic or Optimistic.

Scenario 2: Realistic (Mid-Case)

Monthly Revenue Calculation

Queue-Boosts

Sessions per month:   50 sessions/week × 4 weeks = 200 sessions
Artists per session:  50 artists/session
Total submissions:    200 × 50 = 10,000 submissions
Boost conversion:     10,000 × 10% = 1,000 boosts/month
Avg boost price:      8€
Gross revenue:        1,000 × 8€ = 8,000€

Stripe-Gebühren (Creator zahlt): ~176€
Netto nach Stripe:    7,824€

Plattform-Fee (gestaffelt):
├─ Ø ~267€/Creator/Monat → alle im 15%-Tier
├─ 30 Creator × ~267€ × 15% = ~1,174€
└─ Effektive Fee: ~15% (alle Creator unter €500)

Creator erhalten:     6,650€ (~83,1%)
Breakout erhält:      1,174€
Stripe erhält:        176€

Creator Premium

Premium creators:     5 creators
Monthly fee:          9,99€ each
Gross revenue:        5 × 9,99€ = 50€
Stripe fee:           -5€
Net revenue:          45€
Platform gets:        45€

A&R Subscriptions

A&R subscribers:      2
Monthly fee:          49,99€ each
Gross revenue:        2 × 49,99€ = 100€
Stripe fee:           -2€
Net revenue:          98€
Platform gets:        98€

Total Monthly (Pre-Tournament): 1,317€

Tournament Month Revenue

Tournament Entry Fees

Total entries:        500
Gross revenue:        500 × 19,99€ = 9,995€
Stripe fee:           -220€
Net revenue:          9,775€

Distribution:
├─ Prize Pool (45%):        4,398€
├─ Platform (30%):          2,933€
├─ Jury (15%):              1,466€
├─ Charity (5%):            489€
└─ Marketing (5%):          489€

Platform gets: 2,933€

Viewer Donations

Viewers:              2,000
Conversion:           2.5% = 50 donors
Avg donation:         10€
Gross revenue:        50 × 10€ = 500€
Stripe fee:           -11€
Net revenue:          489€

Distribution (60/20/20):
├─ Artists (60%):     294€
├─ Judges (20%):      98€
└─ Platform (20%):    97€

Platform gets: 97€

Jury Compensation

Base fees (5 judges): 75€ + (50€ × 4) = 275€
Revenue share (5%):   (500 entries × 19.99€) × 5% / 5 judges = 100€
Total Jury Cost:      375€

Tournament Month Total: 2,933€ + 97€ - 375€ = 2,655€

Realistic Scenario: Full Month & Annual

Regular 3-week revenue: 1,317€ / 4 × 3 = 988€
Tournament week revenue: 2,655€
Total Monthly: 988€ + 2,655€ = 3,643€

Annual Projection:
├─ Regular months: 988€ × 11 = 10,868€
├─ Tournament month: 2,655€ × 1 = 2,655€
├─ Annual Jury Costs: -375€ × 12 = -4,500€
└─ Annual Net: 9,023€ ← TIGHT but possible

Assessment: Realistic scenario is MARGINALLY SUSTAINABLE at year 1 with the new tiered fee model. Platform earns ~9k/year net, which is tighter than before but still covers:

• 0.5 Part-time Developer (0.5 FTE @ 5-8k/year): ✓
• Hosting (Supabase, Netlify): ~2k/year ✓
• Marketing: 1k/year ✓
• Contingency: 1k/year ✓
• Profit margin: ~minimal (0-1%)

Trade-off: The new creator-friendly tiered fee model reduces platform revenue by ~50% but significantly improves creator retention and long-term platform stickiness. Break-even is pushed back 2-3 months but the unit economics favor sustained growth.

Scenario 3: Optimistic (High-Growth)

Monthly Revenue Calculation

Queue-Boosts

Sessions/month:       100 sessions/week × 4 = 400 sessions
Artists/session:      100 artists
Total submissions:    40,000
Boost conversion:     15% = 6,000 boosts
Avg price:            10€
Gross:                60,000€

Stripe-Gebühren (Creator zahlt): ~1,320€
Netto nach Stripe:    58,680€

Plattform-Fee (gestaffelt):
├─ Ø ~1.200€/Creator/Monat → gemischte Tiers
├─ Pro Creator: 15% auf €500 + 10% auf €500 + 7% auf €200 = €139
├─ 50 Creator × €139 = ~6,950€
└─ Effektive Fee: ~11,8% (Mischung aus 15%/10%/7%)

Creator erhalten:     51,730€ (~86,2%)
Breakout erhält:      6,950€
Stripe erhält:        1,320€

Creator Premium

Premium creators:     10
Monthly fee:          9,99€
Gross:                100€
Stripe fee:           -10€
Net:                  90€
Platform:             90€

A&R Subscriptions

A&R subscribers:      5
Monthly fee:          49,99€
Gross:                250€
Stripe fee:           -5€
Net:                  245€
Platform:             245€

Total Monthly (Pre-Tournament): 7,285€

Tournament Month Revenue

Tournament Entry Fees

Total entries:        800
Gross:                800 × 19,99€ = 15,992€
Stripe fee:           -352€
Net:                  15,640€

Distribution:
├─ Platform (30%):    4,692€
├─ Prize Pool (45%):  7,038€
├─ Jury (15%):        2,346€
└─ Other (10%):       1,564€

Platform: 4,692€

Viewer Donations

Viewers:              5,000
Conversion:           3.5% = 175 donors
Avg:                  12€
Gross:                2,100€
Stripe fee:           -46€
Net:                  2,054€

Distribution (60/20/20):
├─ Artists: 1,232€
├─ Judges: 411€
└─ Platform: 411€

Platform: 411€

Jury Compensation

Base: 75€ + (50€ × 4) = 275€
Bonus: (800 × 19,99€ × 5%) / 5 judges = 160€
Total: 435€

Tournament Month: 4,692€ + 411€ - 435€ = 4,668€

Optimistic Scenario: Annual

Regular months: 7,285€ × 11 = 80,135€
Tournament month: 4,668€ × 1 = 4,668€
Annual Gross: 84,803€

Annual Jury Costs: -435€ × 12 = -5,220€
Annual Net: 79,583€ ← HEALTHY PROFIT

Assessment: Optimistic scenario shows ~80k annual revenue with the new tiered fee model (vs. ~200k with old 30% fixed model). This is:

• Sustainable: Can hire 1 FTE developer + operations
• Growth-friendly: Can invest 10-15k in marketing
• Profitable: After costs, net profit is ~40-50k
• Realistic? Only if Breakout hits product-market-fit and achieves 50 active creators (same retention challenge as before, but better unit economics)

Detailed Cost Side Analysis

One-Time Costs (Months 0-1)

Monthly Operating Costs (Ongoing)

Break-Even Analysis

Key Insight: If we execute Realistic scenario, we break even immediately in Month 1. This is only possible because we're focused on revenue from Day 1 (Queue-Boosts + Entry Fees).

Unit Economics: CAC & LTV

Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)

Artist CAC

Monthly Marketing Spend: 800€ (Realistic)
New Artists per Month: ~300 (net new = ~50 paying)
CAC per Artist: 800€ / 50 = 16€/artist

Or estimated:
├─ Cost per social media impression: 0.05€
├─ Conversion (impression → submission): 2%
├─ Cost per submission: 2.50€

This is VERY LOW because artists self-select (music community)

Creator CAC

Monthly Marketing: 800€
New Creators per Month: 10
CAC per Creator: 800€ / 10 = 80€/creator

Creator acquisition is harder because it requires:
├─ Personal outreach (DM, email)
├─ Trust-building (proof of concept)
├─ Better offer vs competitors

Customer Lifetime Value (LTV)

Artist LTV

Assumption: Artist stays on platform 6 months (realistic, they churn)

Queue-Boost revenue per artist:
├─ 50% of artists boost at least once
├─ 1 boost per artist per month (conservative)
├─ 10€ average boost price
├─ Platform gets ~15% (gestaffelte Fee, most creators in lowest tier) = ~1,50€/artist/month

6 months × 1,50€/artist = 9€ LTV

Tournament entry (if they enter):
├─ 20% of artists enter tournament
├─ 1 entry × 19,99€ × 30% split (to platform) = 6€
├─ Expected value: 20% × 6€ = 1,20€

Total Artist LTV: 9€ + 1,20€ = 10,20€

CAC vs LTV: 16€ CAC vs 10€ LTV
↳ Ratio: 0.64x (NEGATIVE — requires organic growth to be viable)

Creator LTV

Assumption: Creator stays 1 year (much more loyal than artists)

Revenue sources:
├─ Queue-Boost earnings (Creator behält ~83-90%, platform gets ~15%):
   → 10 active artists × 1 boost/month × 10€ × ~85% = ~85€/month
   → 12 months × 85€ = 1,020€

├─ Premium features: 10€/month (if adopts)
   → 12 months × 10€ = 120€

├─ Jury compensation (if selected):
   → Top 5: €75/Tournament, 12 Tournaments = 900€ annually

Total Creator LTV: 1,020€ + 120€ + 900€ = 2,040€

CAC vs LTV: 80€ CAC vs 2,040€ LTV
↳ Ratio: 25.5x (HEALTHY)

Implications

1. Artist LTV is barely profitable. We're making 19€ on each 16€ spent acquiring them.

   • Solution: Improve artist retention (reason they churn at 6 months?)
   • Solution: Increase boost adoption (currently 10%, could be 15-20%)
   • Solution: Lower CAC (organic growth, word-of-mouth)

2. Creator LTV is very healthy. Each creator is 30x+ return on acquisition spend.

   • This justifies aggressive Creator acquisition
   • Jury compensation is KEY lever (1,500€ out of 2,460€)
   • If creators become judges, ROI is insane

Revenue Scenarios: Summary Table

Side-by-Side Comparison

Sensitivity Analysis: What If?

What if Boost Conversion Drops to 5%?

Realistic scenario with 5% conversion (vs. 10%):

Monthly Queue-Boost gross revenue: 4,000€ (vs. 8,000€)
Platform fee at 15%: ~587€ (vs. 1,174€)
Annual change: -7,044€
New annual profit: -3,273€ ← Platform becomes unprofitable

With tiered model, lower conversion hits profit harder. Mitigation:
├─ Increase boost price from 8€ to 12€ (volume down, revenue stabilized)
├─ Improve Creator sales pitch (incentivize promotion)
├─ Bundle boosts (buy 5, get 1 free)
├─ Lower creator commission on bulk buys (e.g., 12% fee instead of 15%)

What if Tournament Entries Drop 50%?

Realistic with 250 entries (vs. 500):

Tournament revenue: 1,466€ (vs. 2,933€)
Annual tournament revenue: -17,592€
New annual profit: -4,356€ ← Still break-even on other streams

Mitigation:
├─ Reduce jury payment (only pay if 300+ entries)
├─ Lower entry price temporarily (19,99€ → 14,99€)
├─ Increase artist outreach 2 weeks before tournament

What if Tournament Gets 10,000 Viewers (vs. 2,000)?

Optimistic scenario with 10k viewers:

Donation revenue: 300-500€ (vs. 97€ in realistic)
Annual uplift: ~5,000€ additional
New annual profit: +18,236€ ← Very healthy

This shows that viewership is KEY lever for platform growth

Financial Runway & Funding Needs

Scenario: We Have 30k Pre-Seed Funding

Allocation:

One-time costs: 16,050€
├─ Design, frontend, backend

Runway (operational buffer): 14,000€
├─ 3-4 months of operating costs (to reach break-even)

Reserve: 0€ (tight, but doable with Realistic scenario)

Timeline to Profitability:

• Month 1-2: Soft launch, test Realistic scenario
• Month 3: Assess if we're hitting revenue targets
  • If YES: Continue with current team
  • If NO: Cut costs (team reduced to 0.3 FTE) or pivot

Runway Burn (if Realistic scenario fails):

Monthly burn: 3,420€ - [actual revenue]
If actual revenue is 1,000€: burn rate = 2,420€/month
Runway: 14,000€ / 2,420€ = 5.8 months

This gives us ~6 months to prove the model works. Very standard for early-stage.

Critical Assumptions to Test (Month 1-2)

Assumption 1: "10% of artists will boost songs"

• Test: Launch Queue-Boost feature in Week 1
• KPI: Track % of submissions that get boosted
• Target: ≥5% by Week 2 (5% is conservative version)
• If fails: Problem is either pricing (too high) or visibility (artists don't see it)

Assumption 2: "We can attract 50 sessions/month by Month 2"

• Test: Soft-launch to early creator partners
• KPI: Sessions/week, creator retention
• Target: 50 sessions/month = 12.5 sessions/week (realistic, not impossible)
• If fails: Creator onboarding is too friction-y; need to simplify or incentivize better

Assumption 3: "500 artists will enter tournament"

• Test: Launch entry page 2 weeks before tournament
• KPI: Entry pre-purchase rate (% who commit early)
• Target: 300-500 entries minimum
• If fails: Need to adjust entry price or promotion strategy

Assumption 4: "2% of viewers will donate"

• Test: Launch donation system during tournament
• KPI: Conversion rate, avg donation size
• Target: ≥1% (conservative) by end of tournament
• If fails: Need different monetization (ads, voter fees, etc.)

Profit Improvement Levers (for Growth)

Lever 1: Increase Creator Count

• Current: 30 creators → 50 creators
• Impact: +50% revenue (sessions, boosts, premium)
• Cost: +500€ marketing
• Net: +2,000€ revenue, +500€ cost = +1,500€ profit

Lever 2: Increase Boost Price

• Current: 8€ avg → 12€ avg
• Risk: Lower conversion (10% → 7%)
• Revenue change: 1,000 boosts × 8€ → 700 boosts × 12€
  • Old: 8,000€ → New: 8,400€ (+5% revenue)
• Net: +400€ monthly = +4,800€ annually

Lever 3: Increase Tournament Frequency

• Current: 1 tournament/month
• Option: 2 tournaments/month (weekly mini-tournaments)
• Impact: 2x tournament revenue, but also 2x jury costs
• Net: 2x (1,770€ - 375€) = +2,790€ monthly = +33,480€ annually
• Risk: Jury burn-out, artist fatigue

Lever 4: Optimize Viewer Conversion

• Current: 2.5% donors, 10€ avg = 500€/tournament
• Target: 4% donors, 15€ avg = 1,200€/tournament
• Cost: A/B testing, UX design = 2,000€
• Net: +700€/tournament = +8,400€ annually

Combined Levers Impact (if all executed):

Base Realistic (annual): 13,523€
+ Creator growth (500€ × 12): +6,000€
+ Boost price optimization: +2,400€
+ Tournament frequency: +16,740€
+ Viewer conversion: +8,400€
= New Annual Revenue: 47,063€

With modest cost increases (+500€/month):
= New Annual Profit: ~40,000€ (3.5x improvement)

This shows that execution excellence can 3-4x revenue within 6-12 months. Note: Absolute revenue is lower with tiered fees, but unit economics (creator LTV vs CAC) are healthier, enabling faster growth through organic expansion.

Verweise

• MOC - Map of Content
• Revenue-Streams — All monetization sources feeding these calculations
• Revenue-Splits — How 30/30/15/10/10 split affects actual platform take
• Jury-Vergütung — Jury costs are major line item
• Zuschauer-Monetarisierung — Donation projections
• Strategische Entscheidungen — Decisions that impact these numbers